Abstract
A fragile stability has descended on the Caucasus. Major conflicts – such as those in Chechnya and Nagorno-Karabakh – are, if not resolved, at least confined to the political rather than the military sphere. Economic prospects have also improved, but the region’s extraordinary ethnic mosaic, the vulnerability of its newly independent states and the competition for influence between Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US make for an uneasy future.
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