Abstract

The ultimate objective of the problem under study is to apply the min-max tool, thus making it possible to optimize the default risks linked to several areas: the agricultural sector, for example, which requires the optimization of the default risk using the following elements: silage crops, annual consumption requirements, and crops produced for a given year. To minimize the default risk in the future, we start, in the first step, by forecasting the total budget of agriculture investment for the next 20 years, then distribute this budget efficiently between the irrigation and construction of silos. To do this, Bangladesh was chosen as an empirical case study given the availability of its data on the FAO website; it is considered a large agricultural country in South Asia. In this article, we give a detailed and original in-depth study of the agricultural planning model through a calculating algorithm suggested to be coded on the R software thereafter. Our approach is based on an original statistical modeling using nonparametric statistics and considering an example of a simulation involving agricultural data from the country of Bangladesh. We also consider a new pollution model, which leads to a vector optimization problem. Graphs illustrate our quantitative analysis.

Highlights

  • IntroductionThe study is based on the quantification of the risk of having the need exceeding the production and the quantity of the production already ensiled; the same quantification will be applied in the case where the production of a given year exceeds both the need as well as the capacity of the silos for the same year; the idea is to calculate these risks of faults over 20 years in the future, based on the total investment amounts allocated for irrigation and the construction of the silos planned over these 20 years, via 3 calculation methods simulated in N iterations (N distributions of the amounts of irrigation and construction of the silos), and optimize them via a vector Pareto optimization algorithm for faults calculated by considering the pollution and those calculated without the assumption of the pollution; the strategies (belonging to the Pareto front) said optimal strategies will be linked to their amount of investment in irrigation and construction of silos affected and based on the total of these planned investment amounts

  • It is up to the decision-maker to choose a strategy for allocating these investment amounts, among all optimal strategies retained

  • Each point belonging to the Pareto front corresponds to its vector of irrigation and construction of silos amounts and it is up to the decision-maker to choose the distribution of the total investment budget between irrigation and the construction of silos, which gives a strategy belonging to the Pareto front and minimizing the agricultural risk defaults in the case of Bangladesh in future

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Summary

Introduction

The study is based on the quantification of the risk of having the need exceeding the production and the quantity of the production already ensiled; the same quantification will be applied in the case where the production of a given year exceeds both the need as well as the capacity of the silos for the same year; the idea is to calculate these risks of faults over 20 years in the future, based on the total investment amounts allocated for irrigation and the construction of the silos planned over these 20 years, via 3 calculation methods simulated in N iterations (N distributions of the amounts of irrigation and construction of the silos), and optimize them via a vector Pareto optimization algorithm for faults calculated by considering the pollution and those calculated without the assumption of the pollution; the strategies (belonging to the Pareto front) said optimal strategies will be linked to their amount of investment in irrigation and construction of silos affected and based on the total of these planned investment amounts. It is up to the decision-maker to choose a strategy for allocating these investment amounts, among all optimal strategies retained (strategies belong to the Pareto front)

The Problem Schematization
Nonparametric Estimation of Yield Density
Theoretical Calculation of Strategies
Empirical Part
Findings
Conclusion
Full Text
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