Abstract
Inferring episodes of expansion, admixture, diffusion, and/or migration in prehistory is undergoing a resurgence in macro-scale archaeological interpretation. In parallel to this renewed popularity, access to computational tools among archaeologists has seen the use of aggregated radiocarbon datasets for the study of dispersals also increasing. This paper advocates for developing reflexive practice in the application of radiocarbon dates to prehistoric dispersals, by reflecting on the qualities of the underlying data, particularly chronometric uncertainty, and framing dispersals explicitly in terms of hypothesis testing. This paper draws on cultural expansions within South America and employs two emblematic examples, the Arauquinoid and Tupiguarani traditions, to develop an analytical solution that not only incorporates chronometric uncertainty in bivariate regression but, importantly, tests whether the datasets provide statistically significant evidence for a dispersal process. The analysis, which the paper provides the means to replicate, identifies fundamental issues with resolution and data quality that impede identification of pre-Columbian cultural dispersals through simple spatial gradients of radiocarbon data. The results suggest that reflexivity must be fed back into theoretical frameworks of prehistoric mobility for the study of dispersals, in turn informing the construction of more critical statistical null models, and alternative models of cultural expansion should be formally considered alongside demographic models.
Highlights
IntroductionRecent research has enhanced and built upon the paradigmatic models of previous generations of scholars (Noelli 1998; Zucchi 2002; Hornborg 2005; Araujo 2007; Almeida and Neves 2015; Bonomo et al, 2015; Iriarte et al, 2017a; Antczak et al, 2017; De Souza et al, 2020), while ancient DNA evidence is enabling past movements of human and plant populations to be traced and compared in new ways (Posth et al, 2018; Zarrillo et al, 2018; Kistler et al, 2018; Mühlen et al, 2019)
The first regional appearances of distinctive cultural phenomena have long captivated the attention of archaeologists in lowland South America
Rather than evaluating the degree of support for different dispersal models via ethnographic, linguistic, or archaeological information, or debating the nature of underlying drivers, this paper focuses on inferring dispersal dynamics on the basis of geolocated pre-Columbian radiocarbon dates
Summary
Recent research has enhanced and built upon the paradigmatic models of previous generations of scholars (Noelli 1998; Zucchi 2002; Hornborg 2005; Araujo 2007; Almeida and Neves 2015; Bonomo et al, 2015; Iriarte et al, 2017a; Antczak et al, 2017; De Souza et al, 2020), while ancient DNA evidence is enabling past movements of human and plant populations to be traced and compared in new ways (Posth et al, 2018; Zarrillo et al, 2018; Kistler et al, 2018; Mühlen et al, 2019). Rather than evaluating the degree of support for different dispersal models via ethnographic, linguistic, or archaeological (material culture) information, or debating the nature of underlying drivers, this paper focuses on inferring dispersal dynamics on the basis of geolocated pre-Columbian radiocarbon dates. We aim to close the gap by performing quantitative analyses of chronometric data and present a new method for achieving this
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