Resilient urban expansion: Identifying critical conflict patches by integrating flood risk and land use predictions: A case study of Min Delta Urban Agglomerations in China

Despite the recognition of the relationship between technological innovation and tourism development, there is a dearth of rigorous empirical specifications to examine the effect of technological innovation on the latter. With 27 cities of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) in China as an empirical case, this study explores whether technological innovation can promote tourism development by using a series of panel regression models. The empirical results indicate that technological innovation has a positive effect on the development of tourism in the YRDUA. With respect to different regions, types of cities, and stages, there are differences in the positive impact of technological innovation on tourism development. Additionally, the impact of different types of technological innovations on tourism development is also diverse.

Industrial energy efficiency and driving forces behind efficiency improvement: Evidence from the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China

ABSTRACTIn this article we examine the effects of foreign trade, economic growth, and inter-city strategic interaction on pollution in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Urban Agglomeration in China. We find that when the effects of many factors are controlled for, foreign trade is positively related to pollution intensity in the YRD cities. Our results also support the Environmental Kuznets Curve by showing that when per capita income grows larger, pollution intensity first rises and then falls. We also find that ceteris paribus, a higher level of city human capital intensity is associated with a lower level of city pollution intensity. In addition, our results show that there exists inter-city strategic interaction among the governments of the YRD cities in determining their effort levels with respect to environmental protection.

In recent decades, efficiency and intensification have emerged as hot topics within urban industrial land use (UILU) studies in China. However, the measurement and analysis of UILU efficiency and intensification are not accurate and in-depth enough. The study of UILU efficiency loss and intensification potential and their relationship is still lacking, and the application of parametric methods with clearer causal mechanisms is insufficient. This paper argued that the intensification potential of UILU could be defined as the amount of saved land or output growth resulting from reduced efficiency loss of UILU. Accordingly, we constructed quantitative models for measuring and evaluating the intensification potential of UILU, using the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method to calculate efficiency loss in three major urban agglomerations (38 cities) in China. Our results revealed a large scale and an expanding trend in the efficiency loss and intensification potential of UILU in three major urban agglomerations in China. From 2003 to 2016, the annual efficiency loss of UILU was 31.56%, the annual land-saving potential was 979.98 km2, and the annual output growth potential was 8775.23 billion Yuan (referring to the constant price for 2003). It is, therefore, imperative to formulate and implement better policies and measures to promote further intensification and to reduce inefficiency, especially in the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas and prioritizing a few key cities, such as Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Shanghai.

In order to explore the effective path to improve the efficiency of industrial water pollution governance efficiency (WGE), this study takes 27 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China as the research object, measures WGE through the improved SBM model, and tests the impact of WGE drivers using the spatial Durbin model (SDM). The study found that environmental pollution governance investment (EPGI) is positively correlated with WGE, and industrial agglomeration status (IAS) has inhibitory effects on the improvement of WGE. By testing IAS2, it was determined that the impact of IAS on WGE has a "U"-shaped relationship. The direct impact of EPGI on WGE is 0.5016, and the indirect impact on WGE is 0.6428; the direct impact of IAS on WGE is -0.3036, and the indirect impact on WGE is -0.5158. Among the other tested impact drivers, per capita GDP (PCG), industrial structure (IS), and level of technological innovation (TIL) are positively correlated with the dependent variable WGE, while energy consumption intensity (ECI), environmental regulation intensity (ERI), and degree of openness to foreign investment (FIR) are negatively correlated with the dependent variable WGE. In addition to the impact of the aforementioned main drivers, IAS and EPGI, these six drivers also largely influence and determine the final impact on WGE.

ABSTRACTA proclaimed goal of landscape management is to improve the multifunctionality of ecosystem services (ESs) to sustain higher levels of human wellbeing (HWB). Although the enhancement of ES multifunctionality is often considered to lead to better HWB, empirical evidence directly supporting this claim remains scarce. This study investigates the relationship between ES multifunctionality and HWB in rapidly urbanizing regions, using the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China as a case study. We quantified ES multifunctionality with the Gini‐Simpson Diversity Index and identified ES multifunctional types using the bundle approach. We also calculated both the HWB mean score and HWB evenness score with the improved radar chart method, examining their relationships with ES multifunctionality through Spearman correlation analysis and the Kruskal–Wallis rank‐sum test. Results showed that (1) ES multifunctionality exhibited varied relationships with HWB indicators, but overall showed significant negative associations with both HWB mean score and HWB evenness score. (2) Each HWB indicator significantly differed across the detected ES bundles, but none of the bundles exhibited the highest values of all HWB indicators. (3) HWB mean score and HWB evenness score were generally higher in the peri‐urban bundle while lower in the agriculture and forest bundles. Our findings suggest that peri‐urban landscapes can provide relatively higher and more balanced levels of HWB in urban agglomerations. This also implies that a “land‐sharing” urban development model, which balances natural and built environments, may be more beneficial for enhancing ES multifunctionality and HWB compared with a “land‐sparing” model, where natural and built areas are separated.

Research on small sample carbon emission prediction based on improved TimeGAN: A case study of the Yangtez River Delta urban agglomeration in China.

The trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services can provide clues for understanding the mechanisms of regional ecological evolution. Previous studies have mainly concentrated on administrative divisions to characterize ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies within specific regions. However, ambiguity persists regarding the spatial diversity and scale dependency of regional ecosystem services, along with the degree to which human activity and climatic variation influence the relationships of multiscale ecosystem services. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China. Based on grid, county-level, and city-level scales, it analyzes five ecosystem services, namely habitat quality, carbon storage, food production, soil conservation, and water yield, from 2000 to 2020. By using correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation methods, this study explores the intensity of the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services and their spatial patterns. Then, combined with the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector, it identifies the dominant driving factors, quantifies their degree of contribution, and reveals the multiscale differentiation of ecosystem service relationships and their causes. The results show that the five ecosystem services all exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. At the grid scale, there is a trade-off relationship between food production and the other four services, while a strong synergistic effect exists among the remaining four services. At the county scale, the synergistic association between habitat quality and carbon storage is the most significant, with the highest contributions from the average annual precipitation and average annual temperature (q-values 0.893 and 0.782, respectively). At the prefecture-level city scale, the intensity of the ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies shows an increasing trend, and the impact of interactions between socio-ecological elements is significantly higher than that at the grid and county scales. This research provides an evidence-based foundation for decision makers to devise suitable strategies that support the coordinated advancement of ecology and the economy across various spatial scales. It is crucial for promoting precise ecosystem regulation and the sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China.

As global urbanization advances, the expansion of urban land has subjected cities to increasingly frequent and extensive external disturbances, often revealing limitations in disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, particularly in regions characterized by high urbanization, environmental degradation, and recurrent natural disasters. This study investigates the association between urban land expansion and urban resilience, developing a targeted analytical framework to assess their coupling and coordination. Leveraging remote sensing data on land use and socio-economic development indicators, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index encompassing social, economic, ecological, and infrastructural dimensions. Examining three principal urban agglomerations in China’s Yangtze River Basin, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics and rates of change in urban land area and resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. A coupling coordination model was applied to assess the alignment between the rate of urban land expansion and resilience improvement, ultimately aiming to derive actionable policy recommendations. The results demonstrate that: (1) both the intensity and rate of urban land expansion across urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin have declined, indicating a shift in urbanization focus from “land expansion” to “quality enhancement,” with a slowdown in the conversion of agricultural to urban land. (2) Urban land expansion exhibits weak directionality, with land expansion occurring uniformly within the region. (3) On the whole, resilience levels in the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations remain moderate or lower, although showing gradual improvement. (4) The coordination between urban land area and urban resilience across the basin is limited, with a declining alignment between urban land expansion and resilience enhancement rates, signaling an emerging imbalance. By assessing the coordination between urban land expansion and resilience, this study seeks to inform policy development on urban land management and resilience enhancement within the Yangtze River Basin’s urban agglomerations.

Unveiling the impact mechanism of urban resilience on carbon dioxide emissions of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China

This study simulated the effects of changes in the underlying surface induced by long‐term urbanization on trends in surface air temperature (SAT) over three extensive urban agglomerations (Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei, BTH; the Yangtze River Delta, YRD; and the Pearl River Delta, PRD) in China during 1980–2009. To isolate the effects of continuous urban expansion on SAT with the least computation cost, we employed the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) in an off‐line mode for a relatively long period. Based on a high‐quality land use data set dating back to the 1980s, two scenarios were designed to represent the distributions of both nonurban and historically urban land use. By comparing the results of two numerical experiments, urban‐induced warming in daily mean SAT (Tmean) over the three urban agglomerations, BTH, YRD, and PRD, were found to be 0.13°C/30 yrs, 0.12°C/30 yrs, and 0.09°C/30 yrs, contributing about 9.70%, 10.3%, and 9.68% to the mean long‐term SAT trends, respectively. In addition, a higher contribution of urban‐related warming was found in winter for BTH and in summer for the other two regions. However, urban‐related warming had no significant effect on the trends of daily maximum SAT (Tmax) when compared with daily minimum SAT (Tmin). Specifically, at a local scale, the contributions of urban warming to the background warming in three representative cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, were 12.7%, 29.0%, and 23.6%, respectively.

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

This paper analyzed the impact of high-speed railway (HSR) construction on human capital and its mechanism by establishing high-speed railway-city level panel data from 2003 to 2019 and constructing a multiperiod difference- in-differences (DID) DID model in China. The results showed that HSR has significantly promoted the level of human capital in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China, with the overall effect value of 20.8%. The conclusion that HSR promotes the level of human capital is still valid through endogenous treatment of the instrumental variable method and robustness test. Further analysis showed that the impact of HSR construction on the level of human capital in urban agglomerations is mainly through the labor mobility and education investment potential, with the effect values of 3.65% and 4.44%, respectively. The findings of this paper highlight the importance of exploiting the external utility of HSR, improving the level of regional human capital, and promoting high-quality economic development of urban agglomerations.

The development of urbanization has changed the original land cover and exacerbated the urban heat island effect, seriously affecting the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Research on urban heat island characteristics and land cover changes in five major urban agglomerations in China to provide a reference for preventing thermal environmental risks and urban agglomeration construction planning. This paper estimates the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) of the five major urban agglomerations in China from 2003 to 2019 based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) through the urban-rural dichotomy, analyzes their trends through the Sen + M-K trend analysis method, and combines the detrending rate matrix to analyze the impact of land cover type shift on urban heat island change. Research shows that (1) the land cover types of the five major urban agglomerations in China have changed considerably from 2003 to 2019, and all five major urban agglomerations in China experienced varying degrees of urban expansion. (2) The annual average value of SUHII decreases in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and middle reaches of the urban agglomerations, while the annual average value of SUHII increases in Chengdu-Chongqing and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. (3) The spatial composition of land cover types in the five major urban agglomerations in China is highly spatially correlated with urban heat islands, with urban land and bare land urban heat islands being the most pronounced. (4) The land cover type shift has the most significant heat island impact on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations. (5) The land cover change (LCC) with an increasing trend in SUHII is mainly bare land converted to arable land, and water bodies, grassland, forest land, and arable land converted to urban land.

Urban agglomerations in China have become the strategic core of national economic development and the main component of the new type of urbanization. However, they are threatened by a series of eco-environmental problems and challenges, including the severe overexploitation of natural resources. Eco-efficiency, which is defined as accomplishing the greatest possible economic benefit with the least possible resource input and damage to the environment, is used as an indicator to quantify the sustainability of urban agglomerations. In this work, a traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with a slack-based measurement (SBM) model of undesirable outputs, was used to assess and compare the economic efficiency and eco-efficiency of four major urban agglomerations in eastern China (UAECs) in 2005, 2011, and 2014. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the evolution of urban agglomerations were analyzed. Based on the results of a slack analysis, suggestions for improving the eco-efficiency of the four UAECs are provided. The overall economic efficiency of urban agglomerations located in the Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta displayed a V-shaped pattern (decreased and then increased). In contrast, the overall economic efficiency of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration declined during the study period. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration had a considerable loss of economic efficiency due to pollution, whereas the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration was less impacted. Overall, the eco-environmental efficiency of the four UAECs declined from 2005 to 2011 and then increased from 2011 to 2014. In addition, the urban eco-efficiency in the four coastal UAECs was characterized by different evolution patterns. The eco-efficiency was higher in the peri-urban areas of the core cities, riverside areas, and seaside areas and lower in the inland cities. The core cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations were characterized by high resource consumption, economic benefit output, and eco-efficiency. In most of cities in the urban agglomerations, the emission of pollutants declined, leading to a reduction of pollutants and mitigation of environmental problems. In addition, a differential analysis, from the perspective of urban agglomeration, was performed, and concrete suggestions for improvement are proposed.