Abstract
Complex construction projects are developed in a dynamic environment, where uncertainty conditions have a great potential to affect project deliverables. In an attempt to efficiently deal with the negative impacts of uncertainty, resilient baseline schedules are produced to improve the probability of reaching project goals, such as respecting the due date and reaching the expected profit. Prior to introducing the resilient scheduling procedure, a taxonomy model was built to account for uncertainty sources in construction projects. Thence, a multi-objective optimization model is presented to manage the impact of uncertainty. This approach can be described as a complex trade-off analysis between three important features of a construction project: duration, stability, and profit. The result of the suggested procedure is presented in a form of a resilient baseline schedule, so the ability of a schedule to absorb uncertain perturbations is improved. The proposed optimization problem is illustrated on the example project network, along which the probabilistic simulation method was used to validate the results of the scheduling process in uncertain conditions. The proposed resilient scheduling approach leads to more accurate forecasting, so the project planning calculations are accepted with increased confidence levels.
Highlights
Large construction projects are characterized by their complexity in terms of organization, as they consist of hundreds of activities and require numerous resources
Since most studies in the construction domain have only focused on certain aspects of uncertainty analysis, such as uncertainty related to the specific phase of a project [55], or uncertainty related to the particular objective of a construction project [56], this paper aims to discuss a conceptual method based on the comprehensive literature review to accumulate, process, and reuse the dispersed knowledge on uncertainty, considering different aspects of a construction project
A novel resilience procedure was proposed as a response to prevailing uncertainty in construction projects
Summary
Large construction projects are characterized by their complexity in terms of organization, as they consist of hundreds of activities and require numerous resources. Resilient scheduling is a procedure to develop the optimal baseline makespan for a project, considering the trade-off between schedule stability or robustness, and other important objectives, such as makespan minimization [29]. The main objective of this research is to propose a comprehensive mathematical model for resilient scheduling as a trade-off between project robustness, project duration, and contractor’s profit. Previous studies on resilient project scheduling [28,29,30] have not dealt with the finance flow modeling, so the mathematical problem presented in this study aims to contribute to the growing area of research on resilient baseline scheduling by introducing the additional objective function for profit maximization at the end of the project. We assess the issue of financial feasibility in resilient scheduling for construction projects
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