Resilient Backpropagation Neural Network on Prediction of Poverty Levels in South Sulawesi

Bobby Poerwanto,Fajriani Fajriani

doi:10.30812/matrik.v20i1.726

Abstract

Poverty is a topic that continues and is always discussed up to this time, as a benchmark indicator of how the level of welfare and prosperity in the lives of people in a country. Several attempts have been made by the central and regional governments to reduce poverty levels, including “Bantuan Langsung Tunai” (BLT) and the “Program Keluarga Harapan” (PKH). However, poverty reduction in Indonesia is still slowing down, including in South Sulawesi. Based on this, this study aims to predict poverty levels in South Sulawesi. Factors thought to influence poverty levels are the Human Development Index (HDI), the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), and the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The data used are data from 2010 to 2014. The method used is a backpropagation neural network with a resilient algorithm or better known as a resilient backpropagation neural network (RBNN). The results of the prediction of poverty levels using predictors of HDI, TPT, and GRDP showed that the analysis of the RBNN reached its optimum using architecture [3- 9 - 1] and reached convergence at the 81th iteration with an accuracy rate of 95.34%.

Highlights

Poverty is one indicator that must be considered by the government
The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the South Sulawesi BPS which consists of poverty level data as a response, and Human Development Index (HDI), the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) as predictors recorded in 2010 to 2014
The first step in conducting an analysis with the resilient backpropagation neural network (RBNN) is to divide the data into 5 folds with each fold consisting of 24 districts / cities

Summary

Introduction

Poverty is one indicator that must be considered by the government. This is because poverty is an important aspect in measuring the level of community welfare. It is known that the number of poor people in Indonesia in March 2019 reached 25.14 million people. Compared to September 2018, the number of poor people increased by 529.9 thousand people. The number of poor people in South Sulawesi in the last 5 years is still above 500 thousand people. The number of poor people has decreased, but not significant, as in 2017 the poverty rate in South Sulawesi reached 9.38% and the following year 9.06%, meaning that in one year it only fell by 0.32%. The accumulation of poverty levels in South Sulawesi in the last five years only decreased by 0.48% [2], [3]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion