Abstract
The paper presents an investigation of agroecosystem dynamics with an application to wheat yield data in England over the period 1885–2012. The analysis relies on a Threshold Quantile Autoregressive model. The model allows for lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with the values taken by the lagged variables. The analysis documents the dynamics and persistence of yield adjustments to shocks. The estimates indicate the presence of dynamic instability in the lower quantile of the distribution. The analysis shows that, after controlling for the role of technological trend, wheat yield exhibits resilience to adverse weather shocks.
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