Resilience versus Risk

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation options of road infrastructure and economic impacts of climate change is essential to building a more robust and resilient transportation network. To date, most research has focused on qualitative statements and broad findings or on location-specific case studies. This study details a quantitative, engineering-based analysis of the impacts of specific climate stressors on types of road infrastructure. The results are designed to be utilized by transportation planners to understand the vulnerability, risk, and adaptation options for creating a climate-resilient road network by providing specific design changes and fiscal cost analysis. The current study aims to build on previous work and addresses several gaps: use of all climate models approved by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide guidance despite uncertainty, provision of results similar to existing risk and vulnerability analyses to allow for implementation in existing planning processes, and introduction of a methodology requiring only routinely available road network information to allow for replicability across the United States. California is used as an illustrative case study that helps identify the existing vulnerabilities of the road network to climate change and the fiscal savings possible through proactive adaptation strategies. Findings show that for the higher-impact model (95th percentile), California could save $1.9 billion between 2015 and 2050 by proactive adaptation. The contribution of this research is to move beyond the identification of vulnerabilities to a quantitative assessment of specific adaptation options that reduce a community's or region's vulnerability to climate change.