Abstract
Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.
Highlights
Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region
For the period 2010–2050, the average Climate Moisture Index (CMI), a measure of aridity that combines the effect of rainfall and temperature—across the different General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs from the two Coupled Model InterComparison Projects (CMIP3 and CMIP5)—reflects a wide range of uncertainty for the African continent’s major River Basins[3]
Our results indicate that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends
Summary
Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. For the period 2010–2050, the average Climate Moisture Index (CMI), a measure of aridity that combines the effect of rainfall and temperature—across the different General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs from the two Coupled Model InterComparison Projects (CMIP3 and CMIP5)—reflects a wide range of uncertainty for the African continent’s major River Basins[3] This potential range of future climates has long-term impacts on the electricity generation sector; with water levels for hydropower generation and cooling requirements in thermoelectric power plants being the most affected[4]. With an installed hydropower generation capacity of 8.7 GW and additional planned capacity of 22 GW in the pipeline, hydro infrastructure contributes to more than 50% of the electricity generation in many EAPP countries and is expected to continue playing a decisive role in the Power Pool’s energy system[9,10] Most of these investments in large hydropower plants are made under the assumption that precipitation patterns will resemble historical trends. Any change in water availability could leave this infrastructure stranded or result in lost opportunity cost in not taking advantage of higher water availabilities
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