Resilience of Poland’s economy to external shocks: A comparative study of tourist arrivals in relation to Lithuania, Spain, and Portugal

Abstract

Purpose: The chapter explores the resilience of Poland’s economy to external shocks, focusing on the tourism sector. It aims to compare the impact of various crises, such as the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, on tourist arrivals in Poland, Lithuania, Spain, and Portugal. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs), the study analyses the effects of these crises on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign tourist arrivals (ARR). Data from the Eurostat Dissemination Database, spanning from Q1 2006 to Q4 2022, is used, with adjustments for seasonality and crisis-specific dummy variables. Findings: The research reveals notable differences in how these economies, with varying tourism dependencies, respond to external shocks. Tourism-dependent countries like Spain and Portugal exhibited greater sensitivity in their GDP and ARR to these shocks compared to less reliant countries like Poland and Lithuania. Research limitations/implications: The study’s scope is limited to four European countries and specific crises, suggesting the potential for broader future research. Practical implications: The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and tourism industry stakeholders, aiding in the development of strategies for crisis mitigation.