Resilience of food, energy, and water systems to a sudden labor shortage

Abstract

Past research studies have acknowledged the role of resilience in policies and decisions to address disruptive events and proposed frameworks to measure it. The scope and diversity of these unwanted events highlight the need to evaluate the resilience of a system to a specific disruptive circumstance. The broad scope and generic form of the previous studies limit their usefulness as a practical tool for analyzing the factors affecting system performance. To overcome this problem, we are only focusing on the behavior of systems that produce, distribute, and deliver food, energy, and water (FEW) during and after the occurrence of a sudden shortage of labor. Resilience metrics are first developed to measure the resilience of the FEW systems. Next, the performance levels of the FEW systems are clearly defined based on the FEW demands that are not served. Third, the labor intensity of FEW productions is calculated to assess the impact of a sudden labor shortage. This study recognizes the complex interdependencies among the FEW systems and, thus, aims to examine their resilience as a single system. Last, the labor shortage in the USA caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is chosen as a use case to measure the system performance and role of adjustments on the FEW systems. The results show that a labor shortage can significantly impact the FEW system performance, possibly due to the high energy dependency of food and water systems and the high cost of storing energy. Also, the current food system has shown more resilience to a sudden labor shortage compared to the energy and water systems because of the availability of various food alternatives to meet the demand for each food category.