Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis

Abstract

Oil is an important energy resource that guarantees the operation of a country's production and life. To reduce the losses caused by the interruption of oil imports, it is urgent to build a system with resilience. By referring to the idea of resilience evolution curve and analyzing the feedback relationship among the four sub-modules of China's oil import system, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to study resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks. Then, according to the different parameter groups, we simulated the performance changes of the oil import system in different scenarios, calculated the values of system resilience in different situations, and analyzed the possible critical points that system can still maintain normal operation. i) Diversified measures can enhance system resilience and reduce losses. ii) When the external shocks are strong, the extraordinary production of coal-to-oil and public participation also play an important role in mitigating risks. iii) The increase of strategic crude oil reserves, conversion coefficient of crude oil, the company's ability to guarantee oil security and the ratio of energy substitution enhance system resilience effectively. iv) The threshold for the system to maintain stability is found under a certain scenario.