Abstract
The focus of the present paper is the development of a resilience framework suitable to be applied in assessing the safety of ship LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering process. Ship propulsion considering LNG as a possible fuel (with dual fuel marine engines installed on board) has favored important discussions about the LNG supply chain and delivery on board to the ship power plant. Within this context, a resilience methodological approach is outlined, including a case study application, to demonstrate its actual effectiveness. With specific reference to the operative steps for LNG bunkering operations in the maritime field, a dynamic model based on Bayesian inference and MCMC simulations can be built, involving the probability of operational perturbations, together with their updates based on the hard (failures) and soft (process variables deviations) evidence emerging during LNG bunkering operations. The approach developed in this work, based on advanced Markov Models and variational fitting algorithms, has proven to be a useful and flexible tool to study, analyze and verify how much the perturbations of systems and subsystems can be absorbed without leading to failure.
Highlights
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Resilience is fundamentally a system property. The application of this powerful concept is very versatile, and it represents an effective support to discuss safety performances of a complex system, i.e., when safety as a performance is the outcome of a successful interaction among different elements and sub-systems. This concept seems relevant in the case of a shore-to-ship LNG bunkering operation where the ship, the onshore infrastructure/asset and the connecting system are to be modelled and carefully analyzed in terms of interface and interference
PyMC3 has been used for the implementation of the Metropolis–Hastings (MCMCMH) algorithm to perform forward and backward inference by computing the distribution space of the model parameters and determine the most likely outcome
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The application of this powerful concept is very versatile, and it represents an effective support to discuss safety performances of a complex system, i.e., when safety as a performance is the outcome of a successful interaction among different elements and sub-systems This concept seems relevant in the case of a shore-to-ship LNG bunkering operation where the ship, the onshore infrastructure/asset and the connecting system are to be modelled and carefully analyzed in terms of interface and interference. In the traditional view of safety as a non-event, there is a difficulty to define the domain of attention of where to focus the effort and manage the performance In this regard, resilience is considered an important capability needed by the 21st century systems [14]. HMMs allow for performing a forward and backward inference, can be used to conduct operational reliability analysis in complex systems [31,32], and will be adopted as reference tool, as detailed in the following
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