Resilience assessment of trade network in copper industry chain and the risk resistance capacity of core countries: Based on complex network

Abstract

Copper is a critical mineral for the energy transition, facing significant risks of supply disruptions. To explore the copper industry chain's resistance to such risks, this article constructs a trade network for the global copper industry chain based on complex network methods, utilizing 2022 data on copper ores and concentrates, blister copper, refined copper, copper semis, and copper waste and scrap. It assesses the industry's resilience from both static and dynamic perspectives, and analyzes the risk resistance capacity of core countries. The results indicate that: (1) in the copper industry chain, copper semis, copper waste and scrap exhibit a relatively high level of overall resilience, but copper ores and concentrates, blister copper, and refined copper display a lower level of overall resilience. This indicates that the upstream of the copper industry chain is more susceptible to external factors than that of the downstream. (2) Targeted factors such as economic sanctions and trade disputes have a more serious impact on the copper industry chain than random factors such as natural disasters and transportation interruptions. Meanwhile, targeted factors have a stronger impact on the transmission efficiency and connectivity of the network. (3) There are significant communities in the copper industry chain, with some core countries playing an important role in connecting the network. In terms of connectivity, influence, and control, developed countries represented by the United States and the United Kingdom are stronger than the other two groups; emerging developed countries like Japan and South Korea exhibit lower propagation and intermediary capacities; emerging industrialized countries represented by Brazil and South Africa fall somewhere between the first two. Additionally, China and India demonstrate relatively important influence within the copper industry chain. Finally, this article provides policy recommendations for maintaining the stability of the copper industry chain and enhancing its resilience.