Abstract
The safety level of the northern sea route (NSR) is a common concern for the related stakeholders. To address the risks triggered by disruptions initiating from the harsh environment and human factors, a comprehensive framework is proposed based on the perspective of resilience. Notably, the resilience of NSR is decomposed into three capacities, namely, the absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity. Moreover, the disruptions to the resilience are identified. Then, a Bayesian network (BN) model is established to quantify resilience, and the prior probabilities of parent nodes and conditional probability table for the network are obtained by fuzzy theory and expert elicitation. Finally, the developed Bayesian networkBN model is simulated to analyze the resilience level of the NSR by back propagation, sensitivity analysis, and information entropy analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses indicates that the emergency response, ice-breaking capacity, and rescue and anti-pollution facilities are the critical factors that contribute to the resilience of the NSR. Good knowledge of the absorptive capacity is the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty of NSR resilience. The present study provides a resilience perspective to understand the safety issues associated with the NSR, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work.
Highlights
Under the influence of global warming, a rapid decline in sea ice coverage and an increase in the depth of Arctic waters have been observed since 2000 Gascard et al, 2017 [1]
After simulating the developed Bayesian network (BN) model, the results indicate that the resilience of the northern sea route (NSR) suNffSeRrssufrfofemrstfhroemmtohset mnootsatbnloeteafbfleecet,ffdeectc,rdeeacsrineagsitnog7t5o.97%5.,9w%,hwilehitlheethreesrteosrtoartiavtievceacpaapcaict-y is loiwtyeirseldowtoer6e5d.7t%o 6fr5o.7m%8f8ro.2m%8. 8A.2g%e.nAergaelninersaigl hintsoigbhttaionbetdainfreodmfrtohme ftohrewfoarrwd-aprdro-ppraogpaat-ion angaaltyiosnisainnadlyicsaisteinsdtihcaatteasltlhiantdailvliidnudaivlidcaupaal cciatpieasciatirees carrieticcraitlicfoalrftohrethdeedveevloeplompmenetntofofthe retshielierenscielieonfctehoefNthSeRN
The present work attempts to propose a comprehensive framework by which the safety level of the NSR can be improved
Summary
Under the influence of global warming, a rapid decline in sea ice coverage and an increase in the depth of Arctic waters have been observed since 2000 Gascard et al, 2017 [1]. The potential commercial and political importance of arctic shipping routes has been the focus of various countries, shipping companies, and international organizations. The opening and commercial operation of the NSR provide vast potential opportunities, Arctic waters still present major challenges for the shipping industry [5]. Harsh natural environments and fragile ecosystems make it difficult to maintain a satisfactory safety level for shipping operations along the NSR, which greatly increases the concerns of national and international parties. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) issued the Polar Code in 2010 to ensure the safety level of shipping operations in Arctic waters [6]. The safety level of shipping operations within Arctic waters, along the NSR, has garnered attention from various levels of companies at the national and international scales. In the present study, the concept of system resilience is introduced to attempt to obtain knowledge about the security capacity, and an investigation is conducted to improve the system resilience of the NSR
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