Resilience and sustainability-informed probabilistic multi-criteria decision-making framework for design solutions selection

Abstract

In this paper, a novel probabilistic multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework for sustainable and resilient building design solutions selection is developed to optimize alternatives or rehabilitation strategies in a life cycle context. The proposed framework holistically takes into account the buildings' resilience metrics, environmental sustainability, and energy consumption. The life cycle economic cost, global warming potential (GWP), primary energy use (PEU), and social impact are used to represent the buildings’ resilience and sustainability. The second-generation Performance-based Earthquake Engineering procedure and FEMA P-58 method for time-based seismic performance analyses are used to evaluate earthquake-induced impact. The whole-building energy modeling (BEM) is adopted to assess energy use during the operational phase. In addition, life cycle analysis (LCA) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) are carried out to assess the life cycle performance of different design alternatives regarding environmental impacts and cost, respectively. Aiming to consider the various uncertainties in the decision-making process, a novel MCS-MCDM method is developed by combining the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with the traditional MCDM method. The proposed framework is applied to analyze hypothetical cases considering different geographic locations, structural systems, and building envelope systems, and recommendations are given according to the analysis results. The case study demonstrates the advantages of the proposed framework over traditional frameworks and its guidance for architectural design decisions.