Resilience and complexity measurement for energy efficient global supply chains in disruptive events

Abstract

The whole world is faced with the COVID-19 epidemic that causes major disruptions in global supply chains. The aim of study is to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on energy efficient global supply chains (SCs) and to model the global supply chain resilience and energy management affected during the COVID-19 considering trade between Turkey and China, and Turkey and the EU. In this study, firstly using System Dynamics (SD) model, the behavior of countries against COVID-19 for a certain period of time is observed, subsequently the increase in complexity is analyzed with entropy measurement to determine whether the systems are resilient or not and to mark the differences arising from reporting in the first and second wave of the pandemic in the developed model. It is determined that the second wave reporting differences is less than first wave reporting differences except Turkey. From the learning effect perspective, it has been seen that the effect on the economy and foreign trade are less than first wave of pandemic even though the number of patients originating in the second wave are higher. It means that countries responded to the second wave of COVID-19 in a more resilient way. It is found that as a major finding of this study, perceived complexity of the system decreases in the second wave because of the resilience of supply chain considering learning effect and centralized decision making ensure increasing resilience and resilience measure in global supply chains. The study is highly helpful for governments, decision makers and managers to understand and manage the impacts of COVID-19 on global supply chains being resilient and energy efficient.