Residual Life Prediction of Rotating Equipment in Thermal Power Plants Using On-line Estimation with Forgetting Factor

Abstract

In this paper, an on-line deterioration prediction and residual life prediction method is proposed for maintenance of rotating equipment in thermal power plants. Condition of rotating equipment is inspected by vibration measurement. A mathematical model for the deterioration of the rotating equipment is derived in order to predict future condition of the rotating equipment. Residual life of the rotating equipment is predicted by deterioration prediction using on-line estimation of model parameters with forgetting factor. The effectiveness of the residual life prediction method is assured by applying it to actual vibration data of rotating equipment.