RESIDUAL AUTOCOVARIANCES AND UNIT ROOT TESTS BASED ON INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATORS FROM TIME SERIES REGRESSION MODELS

Abstract

. Hall (Testing for a unit root in the presence of moving average errors. Biometrika 76 (1989), 49–56; Joint hypothesis tests for a random walk based on instrumental variable estimators. J. Time Ser. Anal. 13 (1992), 29–45), Pantula and Hall (Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving average models:an instrumental variable approach. J. Econometrics 48 (1991), 325–53) and Lee and Schmidt (Unit root tests based on instrumental variable estimation. Int. Econ. Rev. 39 (1994), 449–62) proposed instrumental variable (IV) based tests for a unit root in an ARMA(p+ 1, q) time series. To perform the tests it is essentially necessary to know (p, q) but in many cases this information is unknown. In practice a natural solution to this problem is to estimate (p, q) from the data using a strategy based on the residual autocovariances from the IV regression. In this paper we examine the properties of these residual autocovariances under various assumptions about the true nature of the time series. This analysis allows us to propose a model selection procedure which has desirable asymptotic and finite sample properties whether the time series is stationary or possesses a unit root. A sideproduct of our analysis is that we extend Box and Pierce's (Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive integrated moving average time series models. J. Am. Statist. Assoc. 65 (1970), 1509–26) analysis of the least squares residual autocorrelations to the residual autocovariances from IV regressions.