Residential vacancy chain models of an urban housing market. Exercises in impact and needs assessment

Abstract

Our purpose is to demonstrate the application of vacancy chain models to housing needs assessment and residential development impact assessment. The empirical base consists primarily of merged data files from the 1975 and 1980 Swedish Census for Population and Housing for the Municipality of Gavle. Our objectives are to calibrate a Markov vacancy chain model for impact assessment, disaggregate that model to identify development impacts on the mobility of specific population subgroups, calibrate a Leontief (input/output‐like) vacancy chain model and demonstrate its use in assessing the need for new housing given a vector of anticipated immigrants and newly formed households. The article concludes with a discussion of the range and limitations of vacancy chain models in applied contexts.