Residential space-heating energy demand in urban Southern China: An assessment for 2030

Abstract

Residential space heating in urban Southern China has been booming in the recent decade. The massive increase in space-heating demand poses significant challenges to sustainability. A systematic assessment of energy consumption and CO2 emissions resulting from residential space heating is particularly important in guiding policymakers and market stakeholders. This study projects and assesses the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of distributed heating and centralized heating systems in urban Southern China under five different scenarios. The results suggest that by 2030, under the business-as-usual scenario, urban Southern China will consume 77–167 million tce (Mtce) of energy to support its potential space-heating demands and will generate 126–275 million tons (Mt) of CO2 emissions. The corresponding proportion of national total consumption and emissions in 2019 is 1.5–3% and 1.1%–2.4%, respectively. If aggressive decarbonization policies are adopted, the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions will be reduced by 47–53% and 54–60%, respectively. These policies include developing clean heating sources, improving heating system efficiency, and increasing electrification levels. In addition, from the regional perspective, the top 5 out of 133 cities (Shanghai, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Chengdu) contribute 27% of all sample cities' energy and 23% of CO2 emissions. Some cities, such as Dali and Qianxinan, may suffer a severe gas shortage because the projected gas demand exceeds the current infrastructure capacity. The results demonstrate the importance of adapting suitable heating systems to local conditions.