Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical regression model for predicting end-use energy consumption in the residential sector. To this end, housing characteristics were collected through a field survey and in-depth interviews with residents of 71 households (15 apartment complexes) in Seoul, South Korea, and annual data on end-use energy consumption were collected from measurement systems installed within each apartment unit. Based on the data collected, correlativity between the field-survey data and end-use energy consumption was analyzed, and effective independent variables from the field-survey data were selected. Regression models were developed and validated for estimating six end uses of energy consumption: heating, cooling, domestic hot water (DHW), lighting, electric appliances, and cooking. Regression analysis for ventilation was not applied, and instead a calculation formula was derived, because the energy-consumption proportion was too low. The adj-R2 of the estimation model ranged from 0.406 to 0.703, and the maximum error between measured and estimated values was around ±30%, depending on the end use.
Highlights
The Kyoto Protocol mandated a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by some advanced countries, such as the United States and those of the European Union
The aim of the present study was to broaden the understanding of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector through developing a mathematical regression model based on measurement data
Information on housing characteristics was collected through a field survey and in-depth interviews with residents for 71 households (15 apartment complexes) in Seoul, South Korea, and data on end-use energy consumption were collected from measurement systems installed in each apartment unit
Summary
The Kyoto Protocol mandated a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by some advanced countries, such as the United States and those of the European Union. The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in November 2015, adopted the Paris Agreement, which mandates that all parties should reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the Paris Agreement, South Korea established an emission target of −37% relative to business as usual (BAU) by 2030. According to a 2017 energy-consumption survey [1], the building sector represents approximately 19% of the total energy consumption of South. Within this sector, the residential sector accounts for approximately 51% of energy consumption. The energy consumption of residential buildings needs to be reduced to decrease the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions
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