Residential End Use Electricity Demand and the Implications for Real Time Pricing in Sweden

Abstract

Using a unique and highly detailed data set of energy consumption at the appliance-level for 390 Swedish households, seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)-based end-use specific load curves are estimated. The estimated load curves are then used to explore possible restrictions on load shifting (e.g. the office hours schedule) as well as the cost implications of different load shift patterns. The cost implications of shifting load from “expensive” to “cheap” hours, using aggregate spot price data, is computed to be very small; roughly 2-5% daily cost reduction from shifting load up to seven hours ahead, indicating small incentives for households (and suppliers) to adopt dynamic pricing of electricity. In addition, end-use-specific income elasticites are also estimated, for the first time for Sweden, using again a SUR framework. The estimated income elasticties are large and significant, varying from a high of 0.8-1.25 for heating to a low of 0.2−0.5 for lighting. Aggregate income elasticity is also high, varying from 0.5 to 0.81. Our results have important implications for Swedish energy policy, in particular for the Swedish government’s stated goal of real time pricing.