Abstract
Climate change enters significantly into and is shown to be a direct determinant of residence and job location change decisions. Understanding of how people’s residence and job location change choice behavior is affected and thus responds to the impacts of climate change is essential for transportation planners and adaptation decision makers. As an addition to the current literature, the main purposes of this paper are to investigate people’s residence and job location change choice behavior affected by factors at origin and look into the behavioral differences between coastal and inland people under flooding and cyclone scenarios in Bangladesh. Questionnaire data were surveyed in 14 coastal and inland cities of Bangladesh with an orthogonal design of three flooding/cyclone scenarios. The multinomial Logit model and cross-nested Logit model are proposed to address the above purposes. Results of this study indicate that flooding/cyclone factors and income, land owned, and number of family members significantly affects people’s location change choice. In addition, coastal people are also significantly affected by previous experience factors. Furthermore, road connection plays an important role when people choose to change residence locations in coastal areas. It is also found that if there are changes in flooding impacts, the inland people will first consider to change their job locations, while the coastal people would consider both job and residence location changes. Results of this work provide policy suggestions on transportation infrastructure investment, shelter planning and construction, and population migration under flood and cyclone impacts as a result of climate change.
Highlights
Climate changes characterized by flood, cyclone, sea-level rise, and so on are having serious impacts on many countries around the world
To address the above research gaps, this paper aims to identify flooding and cyclone factors such as frequency and intensity and impact factors that explain the joint choice of residence and job location while including personal and family socio-economic factors and previous experiences at the origin in Bangladesh
Since the flooding and cyclone impacts in Bangladesh would be similar across a district, and people may not want to move to locations in the same district, as a result, we addressed inter-district location changes in this research
Summary
Climate changes characterized by flood, cyclone, sea-level rise, and so on are having serious impacts on many countries around the world. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world threatened by floods and cyclones due to its geographical location and setting. As a country with a high population density, 10% of the Bengalese live along the coastal areas [1]. Floodplains of its three large rivers cover about 80% of the country’s land where three-quarters of the total population lives [2], and only 10% of Bangladesh is 1 meter above the global mean sea level and one-third is under tidal influence [3]. People’s everyday lives and daily travel are undergoing great challenges from flooding and cyclone impacts. Serious impacts have been being placed on the transportation infrastructure and system in the country
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