Abstract
Abstract. A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.
Highlights
Water resources system management is a very complicated task and, when dealing with climate variability, it becomes even more challenging
The climate variability on which during the last few decades many researchers have focused their efforts, can seriously compromise the operation of reservoirs, and this study aims to investigate this issue
This paper has illustrated the results of an analysis of system performance under climate variability scenarios for the Piano della Rocca Reservoir
Summary
Water resources system management is a very complicated task and, when dealing with climate variability, it becomes even more challenging. A comparison of reservoir performances, assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al 1982), between present and future scenarios of climate variability is reported here. A number of studies presented in the recent past, have demonstrated that the combination of a simulation approach coupled with a performance assessment via indices evaluation is a valuable tool to measure the sensitivity of reservoirs to climate variability and prolonged droughts (Karamouz and Araghinejad 2008, Jain 2010, Preziosi et al 2013). On their side, generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during the last decades for the studied area, as reported in related investigations (Longobardi and Villani 2010, Longobardi and Mautone 2014). The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent drought periods through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules
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