Abstract
Abstract Two methods are presented of estimating accumulated sediment yield stemming from erosion in a semiarid climate during a given time span, and the methods are compared from the viewpoint of the economic consequences evaluated within a Bayesian framework. The design of reservoirs requires the estimation of the random sediment volume Z accumulated over the lifetime of the project. An analytic and a simulation method are used to estimate the density function of Z and to calculate an economically optimal sediment storage space D*. A case study in Arizona, USA, is used to illustrate the methodology for the typical situation when only rainfall records are available. Both methods prove to be superior to the traditional procedure leaning on mean values. For the example considered, the two methods yield commensurate results. It appears that, in a semiarid basin, the effect of parameter uncertainty on both Z and D* may be considerably higher than that of natural uncertainty.
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