Reservoir optimal operation to adapt the non-stationary hydrological series<sup>*</sup>

Abstract

为完善变化环境下水库防洪调度方案，建立了集水文非一致性诊断、水文模型还现、设计洪水计算与水库调度规则优化于一体的水库适应性调控方法体系，并应用于沂沭泗水系仕阳水库.结果表明，仕阳水库入库洪水变异点发生在1975年；利用新安江模型对水文序列还现处理，得到满足一致性的设计洪水，其洪峰、最大24 h和最大72 h洪量均值，较原设计分别增大了19.7%、14.5%和10.0%；建立了以防洪效益最大为目标函数的水库优化调度模型，采用动态规划进行求解.提出的适应性调度方案在20年、100年、1000年和5000年一遇设计洪水条件下，较水库现行设计方案最高洪水位分别降低了0.32、0.11、0.19和0.11 m.;To improve reservoir operation rules under changing environment, this paper proposed adaptive operation methodologies that include the hydrological series inconsistent testing→backwards restore by hydrological model→design flood calculation→optimal operation of reservoir for flood control safety. The proposed methodologies were applied to the Shiyang Reservoir, which located at the Yi-Shu-Si river system. The results have shown that the change-point of this reservoir inflow flood is 1975. The inflow flood that satisfies the assumption of hydrological stationery were calculated by the Xin'anjiang model, and the hydrological consistent design floods acquired based on it. Compared with the original design, the mean values of flood peaks, maximum flood volume during 24 hours and 72 hours of the new design floods increased 19.7%, 14.5% and 10.0%, respectively. The optimal reservoir operation model based on the objective function of maximizing the flood control benefit is established and solved by dynamic programing. Under design flood with 20-year, 100-year, 1000-year and 5000-year return periods, the maximum flood level of Shiyang Reservoir decrease by 0.32, 0.11, 0.19 and 0.11 m, respectively, compared with the current design scheme.