Reservoir Inflow Prediction by Ensembling Wavelet and Bootstrap Techniques to Multiple Linear Regression Model

Abstract

In this study, a new hybrid model, bootstrap multiple linear regression (BMLR) is suggested to investigate the potential of bootstrap resampling technique for daily reservoir inflow prediction. The proposed model compares with three other models: Multiple linear regression (MLR), wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) and wavelet bootstrap multiple linear regression (WBMLR). River stage data of monsoon season (1st July 2010 to 30 September 2010) from three gauging stations of Chenab river basin are used. In wavelet transformation, input vectors are decomposed using discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) into discrete wavelet components (DWCs). Then suitable DWCs are used to provide input to MLR model to develop WMLR model. Bootstrap technique coupled with MLR model to build up BMLR model. While WBMLR model is the conjunction of suitable DWCs and bootstrap technique to MLR model. Performance indices namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC), and persistence index (CP) are used in study to evaluate the performance of model. Results showed that hybrid model BMLR produce significantly better results on performance indices than other models MLR, WMLR and WBMLR.