Reserves for Increasing the Fertility in Russia: to the Method of Assessment

Abstract

The article considers methodical issues of estimating fertility growth reserves. Based on statistical information for Russia, this estimate for the total fertility rate is related to the upcoming changes in the sex and age structure of the population. And in relation to the total fertility rate, the reserves of increase in the first and second births are associated with overcoming the negative consequences of "timing shifts." The estimation of fertility growth reserves is based on fertility rates for both calendar years and real generations. The results of sociological studies of reproductive behavior give significantly greater opportunities for assessing fertility growth reserves (this work uses data from the "Selective Observation of Reproductive Plans of the Population" conducted by Rosstat in 2012). Relatively more feasible reserves for increasing the average number of children born in real generations (and, therefore, increasing the birth rate) are the difference in the average expected and available number of children, the proportion intending to give birth in the coming years. The larger but more complex reserve for increasing the average number of children born is the difference between the desired and the available number of children. The difference between the average expected number of children with an average and a low assessment of living conditions and the value of this indicator with a high assessment, differences in the average self-assessment of the likelihood of having a child in the coming years, with and without additional assistance to families with children.