RESEARCHING TRENDS AND FORECASTING FUTURE VALUES OF FRUIT EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Abstract

Considering that the Republic of Serbia has a surplus in the foreign trade of fruits, the problem of this research refers to the perception of the importance of the foreign trade of fruit of the Republic of Serbia. The subject of the research includes the analysis of previous and future trends in the value of exports and imports of fruits, as one of the most important agro-industrial products. The aim of the research is to determine future trends, as well as to forecast future values of fruit imports and exports using econometric methodology in the field of analysis of variations of time series, i.e. statistical methods of linear trend. The contribution of this research study is multiple, in scientific terms it enriches the existing scientific literature, given that research studies that have addressed this issue are very rare, while in practical terms it provides guidance to producers and exporters of fruits and agricultural policy makers, especially in terms of encouraging fruit exports from the Republic of Serbia in the coming period.