Researching the economic dynamics of high technology products

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses the issue of adequate representation of economic dynamics. It considers the need to take into account internal nonlinear processes being an important factor and additional mechanism for managing the economic dynamics. Objectives. The purpose is to rationalize a transition to a new probabilistic mapping of economic dynamics based on modern methods of nonlinear dynamics, which enables to establish the relationship between internal nonlinear processes and macroeconomic indicators of the economic system. Methods. We employ a systems analysis of stages of State-run programs formation, a probabilistic approach to representing the economic dynamics on the basis of fundamental concepts and methods of nonlinear dynamics. Results. We analyzed the cycles of government program formation for developing the high-tech products, established the identity of the main stages of economic and nonlinear dynamics. We also designed a methodology for studying the economic dynamics, which rests on the use of nonlinear dynamics methods. Modeling the processes of economic dynamics made it possible to determine the causes of its sensitivity to initial conditions and exponential divergence of its trajectory at initial stages of government programs formation. The paper presents methods to choose the optimal model of economic dynamics when substantiating and drafting the said programs. Conclusions. The findings can be used to improve methodological tools for managing the creation of high-tech products when elaborating long-term technological programs, to reduce risk inherent in their implementation, to determine methods and ways for sustainable innovative and technological development of the country.