Research progress on inter-monthly winter temperature variation in East Asia and climate prediction

Abstract

Inter-monthly winter temperature variation in East Asia has been remarkable in recent years, showing reversed or alternating extreme cold and extreme warm events in different months or in different stages of the winter. There are many challenges in climate prediction in the winter months because the inter-monthly climate variation is often within the seasonal mean variation. It is therefore urgent to understand the variation of inter-monthly winter temperatures in East Asia, to identify their predictability and predictive sources, and to propose effective prediction methods and prediction models for the inter-monthly winter climate. This paper reviews progress in research during the last five years on the main characteristics, physical processes, mechanisms, predictability, and prediction of inter-monthly winter temperatures in East Asia, considering several related systems including the winter monsoon, Siberian high, and stratospheric polar vortex. The authors also discuss future research prospects.摘要近年来, 东亚冬季气温的月际间变化十分显著, 冬季不同月份或不同阶段之间极端冷暖事件的转折或交替频发. 由于月际间变化常常被季节平均掩盖, 东亚冬季气候预测面临众多的挑战. 因此, 亟需研究东亚冬季气温月际间变化的特征和机理, 明确其可预测性和预测来源, 进而研制考虑月际变化的东亚冬季气温的有效预测方法和预测模型. 本文回顾了过去5年对东亚冬季气温月际间变化的主要特征, 物理过程, 机制, 可预测性和预测的研究进展, 同时考虑了多个与气温相联系统的变化, 包括冬季风, 西伯利亚高压, 平流层极涡. 本文也进一步讨论了未来的研究前景.