Research progress and its practice of key techniques for dam risk assessment and management

Abstract

Dam risk is an objective existence. The assessment and management of dam risk are related to engineering safety and public safety. In this paper, an overview of the development of dam risk assessment and management techniques in China is made based on the statistical analysis of dam break probability. The connotation of dam risk management is defined. The key techniques of dam risk assessment and management are summarized including identification of dam break model and dam break path, calculation of the probability and consequences of dam break, human reliability, risk assessment and control of cascade reservoirs, dam risk criteria, risk decision, etc. The current application status of practical risk management techniques and tools in China dam safety management is analyzed including risk ranking and decision making, risk early-warning and emergency plan, dam demotion and retirement, annual report on dam safety and operation maintenance and monitoring manual. The future research direction of dam risk assessment and management techniques is prospected. It is hoped that further discussion on dam risk management among the whole industry could be carried out and the change from “engineering safety management” to “risk management” could be promoted as fast as possible in China.