Research on uncertainties in fuel centrifugal pump based on prediction and reconstruction of internal flow field

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Geometric machining errors in the blade profile and variable operating conditions in the extreme operating environment are primary factors leading to the uncertainties in pump performance. This paper presents an analysis of uncertainties of fuel centrifugal pumps by modeling the geometry uncertainty in blade machining based on the Karhunen–Loève (KL) expansion and using a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model. First, the geometric uncertainty in the blade machining is described by the KL expansion in three sections and a stochastic simulation of the blade geometry is performed. Then, a PCE surrogate model is trained based on the least angle regression method and validated by the bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainties of performance indices. Finally, the influence mechanism and relative importance of each input uncertainty parameter are investigated using a quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that the KL expansion of the blade profile uses the random vector perturbation superposition of three stream surface, achieving the dimensional reduction in the blade machining error. The PCE surrogate model, trained with a dataset of 3 × 106 sample points, exhibits excellent fit, and the R-squared and adjusted R-squared for head coefficient and efficiency are both above 80%. The variance of parameter control points of the reconstructed flow field is less than 0.002. The uncertainties in both operating conditions and parameters have an influence on the distribution of the global flow field, while the influence of the uncertainty in machining error on the global flow field mainly concentrates on the power-generating positions of the blade.