Abstract
It is an effective method to analyze the maritime traffic risk using near miss model, but there are no works from the temporal perspective. The duration of near miss shows the maritime traffic risk. The longer the duration is, the higher the risk is. The influence of the ship maneuvering capability, speed, size, and Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS) on the safety of ship navigation are considered in this article, the navigation safety domain is used to detect near misses, and the duration of a single near miss is defined, which is the time from target ship sailing into the navigation safety domain of own ship to leaving, and then an algorithm for calculating duration of near misses is proposed. To measure the similarity of two ships' lengths, the similarity coefficient model of ships' lengths is defined. Based on the k -means algorithm, different parameters k are selected to cluster the duration of near misses. According to the clustering results, the connections between the duration of near misses and the ship type, length, and speed were analyzed to identify a series of time characteristics of near misses, that is high frequencies of short-duration near misses and the strong connections between the long-duration near misses, ship length, and ship speed. The method is first proposed for doing research of near misses in temporal dimension. The findings of this article help researchers and maritime traffic management agencies to better understand the importance of maritime traffic risk from the temporal perspective.
Highlights
With the rapid development of modern economy, water transport has become increasingly busy and the occurrence of ship collision has become more and more frequent [1],[2]
TIME CHARACTERISTICS OF MARITIME TRAFFIC RISK BASED ON NEAR MISSES To study the characteristics of maritime traffic risk based on near miss from temporal perspective, the expert questionnaire method was adopted in the process of data collection. 30 interviewees included engineers, professors engaged in the research of maritime traffic risk, captains, chief officers with practical collision avoidance experience and doctoral students with relevant research interests
The advantage of box-plot is that it is not affected by outliers and can describe the discrete distribution of data in a relatively stable way, so it is used to analyze the duration of near misses which formed in different ship types
Summary
With the rapid development of modern economy, water transport has become increasingly busy and the occurrence of ship collision has become more and more frequent [1],[2]. Fukuto and Imazu regarded DCPA of 1 nm and time to close point of approaching (TCPA) of 5 min as the conditions for detecting near misses from the perspective of reducing the frequency of ship collision warnings and reducing the workload of pilots[6]. Near miss is a critical situation that ships encounter each other[10], and the duration of near miss shows the characteristics of maritime traffic risk from temporal perspective. The navigation safety domain is used to detect near misses, and the model for calculating duration of near misses is proposed, based on the processing for time synchronization of AIS data.
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