Abstract
With rapid economic development and urbanization in China, vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the major factors affecting air quality. The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), which has undergone a fast increase in vehicle population and has an advantageous geographical location, was selected as the study area. Vehicle emissions estimated based on the COPERT IV model in this area changed greatly between 1999 and 2015, during which time the emissions of NOx, CO2, and NH3 increased markedly. Passenger cars and light-duty vehicles were the main contributors to pollutants CO and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions. Heavy-duty trucks and buses were the important contributors to pollutants NOx, PM2.5, and PM10. Passenger cars were the major contributors to CO2, CH4, N2O, NH3, and SO2. The city with the most emissions is Zhengzhou, followed by Luoyang, Shangqiu, and Zhoukou. The spatial distribution of vehicle emissions has formed around or tended to concentrate in urban centers. Then, this study also predicts the vehicle emissions from 2015 to 2025 and designs ten policy scenarios for the prevention and control of emissions to evaluate the emission reduction effect. The radical integrated scenario was most effective for controlling CO, NMVOC, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, CO2, N2O, and NH3 emissions than any one scenario by itself.
Highlights
Accepted: 11 January 2021In recent years, the environmental problems caused by vehicular pollutants have become increasingly serious in China [1,2]
J where m represents 12 cities in the study area; n represents ten pollutants to be studied; i represents the five vehicle categories, including passenger car (PC), light-duty vehicle (LDV), bus (BUS), heavy-duty truck (HDT), and motorcycle (MC); j represents the emission standards implemented by vehicles; and E, P, VKT, and EF represent the pollutant emissions, vehicle population, the mean annual vehicle kilometers travelled, and the pollutant emission factors (g/km) by vehicles in the study area for each year, respectively
This study developed one baseline scenario (i.e., a business-as-usual scenario (BAU)), seven single scenarios, and two integrated scenarios for vehicle pollution emission reduction in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) from 2016 to 2025 (Table 4)
Summary
The environmental problems caused by vehicular pollutants have become increasingly serious in China [1,2]. Vehicle emissions have become one of the main sources of particulate matter and other serious air quality problems, as chemical industries have moved out of urban centers. In 2015, the NOx emission from vehicles totalled 5.85 million tons, accounting for approximately 30% of the total emission of air pollutants in China. The contributions of vehicle emissions to regional air pollution are increasing [5,6]. Facing the new round of emission reduction targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan, comprehensive vehicle emission inventories are crucial to conduct air quality assessments and to assist in policy making
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