Research on the Time-Frequency Spillover Effect of High-Frequency Stock Price and Economic Policy Uncertainty

Abstract

Through the construction of wavelet coherence analysis and frequency-domain spillover framework, this paper makes a comparative study of the volatility spillover effects of international economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China’s Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market from a time-frequency perspective. To fully reflect the international EPU, this paper selects China, the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom and uses the monthly EPU index of these countries and regions. China chooses China’s EPU index and Hong Kong’s EPU index. At the same time, the 5-minute high-frequency volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is selected to represent the Shanghai and Hong Kong’s stock market, respectively. It is found that there are obvious differences between the EPU and the dependence of the stock market in time domain and frequency domain, and the lead-lag relationship between them has time-varying characteristics. Static and dynamic spillover effects play a dominant role in the analysis of medium- and long-term spillover effects. In particular, the EPU and the risk spillover of the Hong Kong stock market are stronger than those of the Shanghai stock market, and the dynamic frequency-domain net risk spillover between them has frequency characteristics, and there are two-way and asymmetric risk spillovers. This provides a certain reference for policy makers to improve the safety management of financial markets and for market investors to optimize their portfolios.