Research on the temporal evolution track and influence of green development from 2010 to 2019.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the balance and coordination during green and sustainable development and estimates the evolution track of the green development system from 2010-2019. The projection pursuit model (PPM), as well as the system gray prediction model GM (1, N) and other measurement methods, were used to construct an evaluation system accounting for green fortune, growth, and benefits to analyze the temporal evolution, developmental trends, and influencing factors of the ecological engineering construction area in Baoshan, Yunnan Province. The results revealed a relatively good green development system, with an upward trend, an average growth rate of 18.3%, and a synergistic coupling effect among the three subsystems. Regional green development has achieved remarkable progress, but challenges and pressure among the three subsystems remain. The prediction analysis also showed that the green development index in Baoshan will continue to increase over the next two years, suggesting that the regional green development system is effective. Green development is primarily affected by environmental pollution, industrial structure, urbanization, population, market, and other factors from the three subsystems of ecology, economy, and social benefits. This study provides practical reference values for prompting regional ecological advancement and green development, along with regional support for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.