Research on the suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale in China

Abstract

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that: (1) The environmental suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. (2) The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. (3) The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. (4) The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. (5) The coordination degree between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. (6) The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as: implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of population and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.