Research on the Spatial Correlation and Spatial Lag of COVID-19 Infection Based on Spatial Analysis

Keqiang Dong,Liao Guo

doi:10.3390/su132112013

Abstract

COVID-19 has spread throughout the world since the virus was discovered in 2019. Thus, this study aimed to identify the global transmission trend of the COVID-19 from the perspective of the spatial correlation and spatial lag. The research used primary data collected of daily increases in the amount of COVID-19 in 14 countries, confirmed diagnosis, recovered numbers, and deaths. Findings of the Moran index showed that the propagation of infection was aggregated between 9 May and 21 May based on the composite spatial weight matrix. The results from the Lagrange multiplier test indicated the COVID-19 patients can infect others with a lag.

Highlights

The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a large impact on people’s lives and organizations such as global education, economy, sports, public health, medical care, transportation, and politics
In order to determine whether there is spatial correlation between the spread of COVID-19 in various countries, we calculate the Moran index according to the binary spatial weight matrix (W1), the inverse distance space weight matrix (W2), and the composite spatial weight matrix (W3), respectively
It shows that the binary spatial weight matrix (W1) can only introduce some spatial factors of COVID-19 spread in various countries

Summary

Introduction

The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a large impact on people’s lives and organizations such as global education, economy, sports, public health, medical care, transportation, and politics. The continuous spread of COVID-19 in the world has brought an unprecedented public health crisis to all mankind [1] and accelerated the world economy into a painful adjustment period [2]. Under the impact of the epidemic, the world economic growth expectation is facing a continuous downward revision [4,5]. Since late February 2020, the new coronavirus epidemic outside China has shown a spreading trend. As of March 5, a total of 14,768 cases were diagnosed outside China [6], of which South Korea had the most, followed by Italy.

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