Research on the Relationship between Structural Change and Economic Growth in Guangzhou——An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

Abstract

High-quality development is an active choice for socialism with Chinese characteristics to enter a new era. As one of the four first-tier cities, Guangzhou should set an example in promoting high-quality economic development. Based on the structural factors of economic development, this paper uses vector autoregressive model (VAR) to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure, ownership structure change and economic growth in Guangzhou from 1985 to 2017. The results show that there is a two-way Granger causality between Guangzhou’s consumption structure, industrial structure, ownership structure and economic growth. The two-way causal relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth is the most significant. From the results of variance decomposition, the consumption structure changes have the highest contribution to the trend of economic growth fluctuations.