Abstract
Based on the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) and the panel data of China’s 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis on the dynamic balance relationship between China’s express business volume and economic development status in recent 10 years. The results show that: Firstly, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development level of express industry and the economic development level; Secondly, the relationship between them presents regional heterogeneity (that is, the East, Centre and the West show different characteristics); Finally, in the short term, the development of express delivery industry and economic development can well drive each other, but in the long term, this trend is not obvious, and the economic impact of express delivery industry has a certain lag.
Highlights
Express delivery industry, a new industry that has just developed in the 21st century, is an important part of logistics
The results show that: Firstly, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development level of express industry and the economic development level; Secondly, the relationship between them presents regional heterogeneity; in the short term, the development of express delivery industry and economic development can well drive each other, but in the long term, this trend is not obvious, and the economic impact of express delivery industry has a certain lag
The results show that at the significance level of 5%, there is a co-integration relationship between and sequence, indicating that there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the development of express industry and economic development
Summary
A new industry that has just developed in the 21st century, is an important part of logistics. It is characterized by its speed, which can deliver goods to the target place in a very short time. In this paper, based on the relevant indicators of China’s express industry and economic development from 2010 to 2019, the panel vector autoregressive model is adopted to conduct a quantitative analysis on the dynamic balance relationship between them
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