Research on the Relationship among Digital Inclusive Finance, Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Rural Residents’ Income Based on PVAR Model

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and municipalities from 2011 to 2021, this paper constructs PVAR model to study the relationship among digital inclusive finance, agricultural and rural modernization and rural residents’ income. It is found that: Firstly, digital inclusive finance is the unidirectional Granger cause of agricultural and rural modernization, and there is a bidirectional Granger causality between digital inclusive finance and rural residents’ income. There is also a bidirectional Granger causality between agricultural and rural modernization and rural residents’ income, and there is a direct or indirect influence mechanism among them. Secondly, digital inclusive finance has a strong self-enhancement mechanism, while rural residents’ income and agricultural and rural modernization have self-enhancement in a short term. At the same time, digital inclusive finance obviously promotes rural residents’ income increase, and the two factors promote each other in the short term. Rural residents’ income increase can promote agricultural and rural modernization in the short term, while the development of digital inclusive finance lags behind in promoting agricultural and rural modernization. Finally, the biggest impact of digital inclusive finance, agricultural and rural modernization and rural residents’ income comes from themselves, and the coordination among them needs to be strengthened.