Research on the relation of Economy-Energy-Emission (3E) system: evidence from heterogeneous energy in China.

Abstract

To achieve China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, conducting systematic research on the energy, economy, and emission factors that affect the sustainable development of society is of great significance. This paper first uses the vector error correction model (VECM)-based Granger causality test to analyze the joint causal relations and feedback correction mechanisms among energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in China from 1980 to 2019 at the energy heterogeneity level; then, analyzes the decoupling effect of China’s four major energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity) and economic growth from the perspective of energy heterogeneity; finally, the Tapio decoupling elastic model is decomposed into the emission reduction elasticity and energy saving elasticity to analyze the decoupling causality chain of the economy, energy, and carbon emissions. The research results show that there is a long-term, two-way causal relation between coal consumption and CO2; coal consumption has a one-way causal relation with economic growth; and long-term, two-way causal relations exist between oil and CO2, natural gas and CO2, electricity and CO2, electricity, and economic growth. In addition, when energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions deviate from their equilibrium states in the short term, various energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in the previous year will be adjusted by 19.5%, 0.6%, …, 7.7%, and 3.4% to bring the nonequilibrium states back to the long-term equilibrium states. Furthermore, the energy-saving elasticity of China’s total energy, coal, oil, and natural gas is the main factor affecting the corresponding decoupling elasticity, but the emission reduction elasticity of electricity has a stronger impact on the decoupling elasticity than the emission reduction elasticity does.