Research on the price of harvesters in the secondary market as an aspect of changing their technical condition

Abstract

In the timber industry complex of Russia, medium-sized and small enterprises with a volume of timber harvesting up to 100 thousand cubic meters per year occupy a share of 48 % in the total volume. Most of these enterprises do not have the capacity to purchase new harvesters. An alternative to the new harvesters are the harvesters from the secondary market. Thus the study of changes in the technical condition of harvesters during their operation is an actual study for Russia. The data on the models, age, number of hours worked and the cost of harvesters that are offered on the secondary market was collected. 202 commercial offers were collected. In total there are 31 harvesters under 5 years of operation; 99 harvesters from 5 to 10 years of operation; 56 - from 10 to 15 years of operation; and 16 - older than 15 years of operation. There are 73 John Deere harvesters (including the outdated Timberjack models), with 8 tracked vehicles, 29 Ponsse harvesters; 49 Komatsu harvesters (including the outdated Valmet models) with 4 harvesters based on a tracked excavator; 37 harvesters of different models made on the basis of tracked excavators and 18 harvesters of other models. Hypothetically assuming that there is a connection between the price of the harvester and its condition, correlations were analyzed between the price and the age of the harvester and between the price and the number of worked hours of the harvester. The relationship between the price and the age is described by power and exponential curves, with coefficients of determination of 0,56 and 0.54, respectively. Filtering data by power range (160-205 kW) and by model (three models were considered: John Deere 1270; Ponsse Ergo; Komatsu 931) did not lead to clear certainty about the form of regression, although it slightly increased the coefficient of determination. There are groups of factors that can influence the type of regression: the seller's factor, the repair factor, the operation factor, and the technical characteristics factor, but determining the degree of influence of these groups requires additional research. The dependence between the price and the number of worked hours is characterized by a very weak relation due to a large spread of data owing to incorrect values of the hours marked by sellers. General regression trends for harvesters are consistent with data for other types of tractors. But to determine unambiguity in regressions requires the accumulation of empirical data on the reliability of machinery and changes in their price over a number of years.