Abstract

Landslides are frequent and catastrophic geological hazards, and forecasting their movement is an important aspect of risk assessment and engineering prevention. Based on the integrated deep displacement three-dimensional measuring sensor with sensing unit array structure, an improved multivariable grey model based on dynamic background value and multivariable feedback is proposed to build predictive models for the evolutionary condition of landslides. In the modeling process, the traditional grey model was replaced by extracting the trend information of each variable, instead of summing up each independent variable after assigning weights to it, besides, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is used to modify the default value in the model’s background variables. By predicting more than 1000 sets of deep displacement monitoring data collected in the landslide simulation test conducted at the landslide simulation test device, the displacement prediction accuracy of our purposed model is 26%, 47%, and 87% respectively higher than the optimizing grey model (OGM) for three sensing units at different depths. Moreover, a new landslide risk assessment approach based on the orientation vector angle is proposed to make stability discriminations which is less susceptible to volatile data than the TOPSIS-Entropy weight theory and avoids the problem of lack of uniform standards due to the complexity of environmental factors.

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