Research on the Innovation-Driving Mechanism for the Synergistic Development of Two-Way FDI in China’s Manufacturing Industry: Based on the Perspective of the New Development Pattern of “Dual Circulation”

Abstract

The new pattern of “dual circulation” is a new development model for China to seek mutual promotion between international and domestic markets in the new era. In this context, this paper explores the synergistic relationship between two-way FDI and its impact mechanism on the improvement of China’s manufacturing innovation capability. By taking 27 segments of the Chinese manufacturing industry as data samples from 2003 to 2018, we use the Granger cause, orthogonalized impulse response function, and physical capacity coupling system to verify the two-way FDI synergistic development relationship in the Chinese manufacturing industry and measure its degree of synergy. In addition, we empirically explore the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading in the impact of two-way FDI synergistic development on innovation capability in the Chinese manufacturing industry, and further analyze the industrial heterogeneity of this mediating role among labor-intensive, capital-intensive, and technology-intensive manufacturing segments. The study finds that firstly, there are different degrees of synergistic development in the Chinese manufacturing segments, and this synergistic development significantly contributes to the innovation capability and industrial structure upgrading of the Chinese manufacturing industry. Secondly, industrial structure upgrading of the Chinese manufacturing industry plays an essential mediating effect in the innovation-driving process of the two-way FDI synergistic development, and the mediating effect shows significant industrial heterogeneity. More specifically, the mediating effects in labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries are significantly positive, and the mediating effect in technology-intensive industries is more prominent. However, the mediating effect in capital-intensive industries is significantly negative. The paper provides empirical evidence to clarify the innovation-driving mechanism of the two-way FDI synergistic development in China’s manufacturing industry from the perspective of the new development pattern of “dual circulation” and provides valuable references for research in related fields.