Abstract
Based on the comprehensive evaluation method, a comprehensive urban ecological carrying capacity (UECC) evaluation system is established. It includes ecological support, ecological resilience, and ecological pressure. Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was used to conduct a thorough examination of the spatial and temporal patterns, and the factors that influenced the UECC of 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2019. The results show that (1) China’s UECC index ranges from 0.0233 to 0.2811 in 2019, which is still at a low level. (2) The spatial distribution is relatively stable: high-value agglomerations of UECC are distributed primarily in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while low-value agglomerations are primarily distributed in the regions in the Central Plains. (3) All influencing factors have a positive effect on the improvement of UECC and are heterogeneous in spatial distribution. Lastly, this paper gives corresponding suggestions, so that governments can formulate differentiated policies and effectively improve UECC.
Highlights
Since 2019, China has deployed several ecosystem restoration actions, such as the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, and the “ten-year ban on fishing” in critical areas of the Yangtze River Basin, demonstrating China’s environmental protection and pollution-reduction efforts
Based on panel data from 286 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2019, urban ecological carrying capacity (UECC) of each municipality was estimated by the comprehensive evaluation method after weighing variables with the entropy method
The driving mechanism of UECC was analyzed through the Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model
Summary
Since 2019, China has deployed several ecosystem restoration actions, such as the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, and the “ten-year ban on fishing” in critical areas of the Yangtze River Basin, demonstrating China’s environmental protection and pollution-reduction efforts. Ecosystem restoration involves the economy, society, population, energy, and other aspects It requires the coordination of energy security, economic development, social livelihood, cost input, and many other factors. Based on spatial panel data of China’s 286 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2019, we built a comprehensive evaluation system to evaluate UECC based on multidimensional indicators, established multiscale geographic weighted regression model (MGWR) that can reflect geographic spatial characteristics, and to better understand the development law of UECC and realize the coexistence of humans and nature in harmony, analyzed the influencing factors of ECC as a spatial change system. Compared with traditional geographically weighted regression (GWR), MGWR is a spatial model that is more practical and closer to actual conditions It takes into account the various impact scales of other variables to avoid too much noise.
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