Abstract

Abstract The cointegration test, ECM model, impulse response function and other econometric methods are used in this paper to analyze the impact of coal prices fluctuations on the effectiveness of CPI and its delay impact. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between coal prices and the CPI in China. The effectiveness of coal price fluctuations on the CPI is about 0.157% in the long run, and if the short -term fluctuations deviate from the longterm equilibrium, the model of coal prices and CPI will adjust from non-equilibrium state to equilibrium state by - 0.03. From the impact of delay, the fluctuation of coal prices does not have long-term impact on CPI: the first phase of the performance is not obvious, the strength of innovation impact shows then, and it reaches the peak in the third period. The results from the variance decomposition have got the similar conclusions. Based on the conclusions, several corresponding policy recommendations are put forward in this research.

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