Research on the influence of design uncertainty on aeroengine thermodynamic cycle analysis

Abstract

The sources of aero-engine component performance uncertainty mainly include design uncertainty, manufacturing uncertainty and operating uncertainty. In this paper, the parallel hybrid turbofan engine was chosen as the research object and the Monte Carlo numerical simulation method was adopted to investigate the impact of design uncertainty on the aero-engine thermodynamic cycle analysis. A surrogate model was established to solve the problem that the traditional engine performance calculation model takes too long in the case of large samples. A quantitative evaluation was proposed for schemes in terms of both advancement and realizability. The research showed that the design uncertainty would cause a difference in the scheme's design realization probability. Using the Monte Carlo numerical simulation method to study the impact of design uncertainty on engine performance can simultaneously achieve adjustments to design schemes. Compared with the traditional engine performance calculation model, the surrogate model can save 95% calculation time. The probability evaluation method provided a better and more comprehensive evaluation method for the thermodynamic cycle analysis results and the adjustment scheme after replacing component performance parameters. Due to the input of 1988kw electric power, compared with the conventional turbofan engine, the fuel consumption at the cruise point was reduced by 21.68% and the total temperature before the turbine at the maximum takeoff point was reduced by 12.88%.